Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil won Monday’s federal byelection with 51.3%, ahead of Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé at 32.9% and Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault at just 12.5%.
The Liberal takeover of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord looks like a 20-point electoral surge on the surface. The raw ballots tell a different story.
The Liberals received only 16,235 votes, up 415 from the 15,820 ballots they received in the April 2025 general election.
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The Conservative vote moved dramatically in the opposite direction. Richard Martel won the riding for the Conservatives in 2025 with 17,356 votes, or 34.1%. Gaudreault received only 3,962 votes Monday, a decline of 13,394 ballots and 21.6 percentage points.
The Bloc’s share moved only modestly, from 31.2% to 32.9%.
The result returned Chicoutimi—Le Fjord to the Liberals after eight years of Conservative representation. Martel first captured the riding in a 2018 byelection and held it through the 2019, 2021, and 2025 elections.
The loss carries additional political weight because of the riding’s exposure to the US-Canada trade fight.
Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean is a major aluminum-producing region. In May, Ottawa committed $6.82 million to six manufacturers and one industry organization in the region specifically to help them respond to US aluminum tariffs. The federal government said the projects supported more than 350 jobs.
Forestry and dairy are also important to the regional economy. Gobeil himself is a dairy farmer and former head of Quebec’s dairy producers association. During the campaign, he positioned himself as an advocate for aluminum, forestry, and supply management.
Overall, turnout was substantially lower than in the 2025 general election.
But Chicoutimi—Le Fjord was the only seat to change parties as Mark Carney’s Liberals swept all three Monday byelections, also retaining Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano.
The three victories leave the Liberals with 173 seats, strengthening Carney’s majority in the House of Commons.
