A new Ipsos poll shows Alberta’s October referendum remains heavily tilted toward staying in Canada on stated voting intention, but the pollster says the eventual result could also depend on whether that support translates into turnout.
70% of Alberta respondents said they intend to choose the option for Alberta to remain a province of Canada on October 19, according to polling conducted for Global News. Another 20% said they would back beginning the constitutional process required to hold a future binding referendum on Alberta separation.
The October ballot is not itself a binding vote on independence. Elections Alberta lists Question 10 as a choice between remaining a province and directing the provincial government to begin the legal process toward a later binding separation referendum.
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Those numbers have moved little since Ipsos surveyed Albertans from May 28 to June 1. That earlier poll put the two options at 72% and 19%, respectively. Ipsos said the two-point decline in the remain figure is not statistically significant.
Ipsos Public Affairs senior vice-president Gregory Jack told Global News that voter motivation could matter more than usual because “the ‘no’ side — the side that wants to stay — is not as motivated.”
Ipsos found 76% of Albertans were aware that the referendum contains multiple questions, while 62% said they planned to vote on all 10.
A separate hypothetical question produced an even wider gap. If Alberta were already holding a binding independence referendum, 74% said they would vote to stay in Canada and 14% would vote to leave. In June, those figures were 72% and 18%.
The September survey interviewed 600 Alberta residents online from September 18–22. Ipsos gives the Alberta portion a credibility interval of ±4.9 percentage points.
