Polls Suggest Potential Conservative Landslide in Next Federal Election

A new national survey conducted by Abacus Data from July 4 to 9, 2024 reveals that the Conservative Party maintains a significant lead in Canadian federal politics. 

The poll, which sampled 1,989 Canadian adults, indicates that if an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would support the Conservatives, while the Liberals and NDP would receive 23% and 18% respectively.

The Conservative Party’s lead has strengthened in several key regions, including British Columbia, Ontario, and the Prairie provinces. In Quebec, however, the Bloc Québécois remains the frontrunner with 38% support.

Demographic analysis shows the Conservatives leading across all age groups, with a notable increase in support among younger voters aged 18 to 29. The gender gap in voting preferences, previously a factor in Canadian politics, appears to have diminished.

Adding to this trend, a recent Mainstreet poll projects a dramatic shift in seat distribution. The model suggests the Conservatives could win 245 seats, a gain of 126, while the Liberals might drop to just 44 seats, losing 116. 

This would result in a Conservative majority government. The projection also indicates minor changes for other parties, with the Bloc Québécois gaining 3 seats, the NDP losing 8, and the Greens maintaining their current position.


Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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