A new survey found that more than two in five Americans believe that a civil war is at least “somewhat likely” in the next 10 years. The results echo billionaire and author Ray Dalio’s predictions from last year.
In his book, The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, Dalio warned of the likelihood of a US civil war in the next decade, pointing to people ignoring rules of governance, and the “exceptional amount of polarization” in the country.
The poll by YouGov and The Economist found that 43% of the 1,500 US adults surveyed believe that a civil war was either “very” or “somewhat likely.” The percentage was higher among those who identified as “strong Republicans,” while a third of the total respondents said that it’s not very or at all likely.
The survey also found that 66% believe that political divisions have only deepened since the start of 2021, and 62% just expect the divisions to deepen.
Dalio, who is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, has studied the many cycles of rises and declines over the last 500 years. From this knowledge, he identified two possible factors that lead to a civil war, as written in a LinkedIn note published in February. And they pretty much sound like today’s headlines.
First, according to the billionaire, are “financial problems due to not having enough money that lead to large deficits, high taxes, a lot of money printing, and high inflation.” Next, are “large wealth and values gaps in which people are more willing to fight for what they want than to compromise.”
These would then lead to “some sort of fighting for control (rather than compromising according to the rules) which is a ‘civil war,’ though these fights can be more or less violent.”
However, in a separate interview in December, Dalio also said that the Constitution should lessen the panic as it is the “longest-lasting and most widely admired internal order.”
Information for this briefing was found via YouGov and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
