A trade built partly around an expected US copper tariff is facing its first major policy test after helping push the metal to record highs.
The White House has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper as officials weigh the potential benefit to domestic mining and refining against higher costs for American manufacturers, Reuters reported Thursday, citing two people familiar with the matter.
The uncertainty comes just days after copper surged to an all-time high as traders positioned for tighter US import rules.
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The reversal in expectations immediately hit markets. Copper futures fell more than 4% following the Reuters report, while shares of US copper producer Freeport-McMoRan dropped more than 7%.
Benchmark three-month copper on LME reached a record $14,779 per metric ton on September 8. A day earlier, the metal first broke its previous record at $14,533 as tariff positioning combined with constrained supply outside the US.
That positioning has moved physical metal as well as futures prices. US buyers accumulated copper ahead of a possible duty, pushing COMEX inventories to 797,275 short tons by September 8.
Reuters previously reported that the tariff threat had redirected enough metal toward the US to tighten availability elsewhere despite forecasts for a global copper surplus this year.
The tariff path itself has been public since last year. Commerce initially recommended a phased universal tariff on refined copper of 15% beginning January 1, 2027, followed by 30% in 2028. Trump did not enact those duties in July 2025, instead ordering Commerce to update him on the domestic market by June 30, 2026.
Commerce met that deadline, according to a White House official cited by Reuters, but what Secretary Howard Lutnick recommended remains unclear. The official said the administration continues evaluating ways to reshore copper production.
The hesitation exposes the policy trade-off behind the tariff. The US imports roughly half of the copper it consumes and operates only two copper smelters. Tariffs could improve the economics of domestic production, but copper is also an input for electrical equipment, automobiles, construction, electronics, and other manufacturing industries.
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Perhaps this is one commodity you just need to buy outright. This incessant manipulation by tariffs is more about market manipulation than “protecting American jobs;” this just isn’t your product. This is plain to see…or should be…