Cameco (TSX: CCO) has slashed its 2025 McArthur River/Key Lake forecast to 14–15 million U₃O₈ pounds (100% basis) from 18 million, a 3–4 million-pound cut that hit the tape after market. The company’s share, 69.8% basis, falls to 9.8–10.5 million pounds from 12.6 million pounds.
Management pinned the downgrade on development delays and slower-than-expected ground freezing while transitioning into two new mining areas in H1 2025. Earlier flagged risks around labour availability and commissioning custom equipment also weighed on timing.
Despite the news, traders bid uranium equities on the news. After hours, Uranium Energy rallied 3.44%, Energy Fuels up 2.48%, enCore Energy up 0.85%, Denison Mines up 2.73%, NexGen Energy up 4.17%, while Cameco itself added 0.71% post-market after a 4.45% regular session.
Australian-listed uranium names opened higher following the news: Lotus Resources is up 10.8%, Paladin Energy up 10.6%, Boss Energy up 10.2%, Aura Energy up 7.9%, Nexgen Energy up 7.3%, Silex Systems up 5.2%, and Betashares Global up 4.1%, with broad sector gains of around 2–11%.
Cigar Lake remains on track for 18 million pounds on 100% basis (9.8 million pounds for Cameco share) in 2025, and strong performance there could offset up to 1 million pounds of the McArthur shortfall. In total, Cameco sees a 2–3 million-pound gap this year if the full offset materializes.
To meet deliveries, Cameco said it can flex supply with inventory, borrowed product, pulled-forward long-term purchases, and opportunistic spot buying. Any deferred pounds “remain available to us” and could be delivered later at potentially higher prices.
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Cameco cautioned the unplanned event could add variability to its other 2025 outlook items disclosed in the recent quarterly financials. The company will update guidance once the impact of deferred production is clearer.
Cameco last traded at $108.14 on the TSX.
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