Venezuela’s oil production has soared to 1.2 million barrels per day, a 25% increase over the past three months, as stated by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. This marks a significant rebound for a nation with the world’s largest crude reserves, signaling potential relief for global energy markets amid rising prices.
The output surge comes after years of decline, with production languishing at around 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 due to sanctions, mismanagement, and underinvestment. At its peak in 1970, Venezuela pumped 3.7 million barrels daily, a level the country now aims to approach with ambitious recovery plans. Rystad Energy estimates that achieving a target of 3 million barrels per day by 2040 would require a staggering $183 billion in capital investment between 2026 and 2040, underscoring the scale of infrastructure challenges ahead.
Political shifts are playing a role in this revival. Nearly three months after the toppling of former president Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has been actively courting US oil and gas executives to invest in Venezuela’s neglected fields. President Donald Trump himself hosted a White House meeting in January 2026, pushing for at least $100 billion in commitments to bolster output and curb US energy costs. US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, speaking at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, highlighted the vast resources, describing the opportunity as “quite amazing.”
Despite the optimism, hurdles remain formidable. Safety concerns, an unstable interim government, and dilapidated infrastructure deter widespread investment. Luis A. Pacheco, a former Venezuela energy executive and visiting fellow at the Baker Institute, noted that US efforts have yet to yield the expected breakthrough, with expectations still unfulfilled. Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan echoed the cautious sentiment, acknowledging the enormous resource base but stressing the need for legal and fiscal reforms before committing to natural gas projects by year-end 2026.
Chevron, a long-standing player in Venezuela since 1923, has taken steps to deepen its footprint. In an asset swap announced today, the company increased its stake in the Petroindependencia joint venture to 49% and secured development rights for the Ayacucho 8 area in the Orinoco Oil Belt through its Petropiar venture. Javier La Rosa, President of Chevron Base Assets and Emerging Countries, called the deal a strategic move to enhance heavy oil development efficiencies.
The production climb to 1.2 million barrels per day offers a glimpse of Venezuela’s potential to reclaim its status as a global oil powerhouse. With output already up sharply from last year’s lows, the interim government’s alignment with US interests could unlock further growth if investment barriers are addressed by the close of 2026.
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