Weeks after an anonymous Polymarket account called “Magamyman” collected more than $553,000 betting on the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, a new cluster of coordinated wallets has drawn fresh scrutiny — this time on ceasefire contracts.
Blockchain watchers flagged 10 newly created wallets that loaded more than $160,000 into contracts predicting a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of March. The accounts carry the same hallmarks as those that preceded the February 28 strikes: almost no trading history, all created around the same time. Their potential payout exceeds $1 million.
Read: Mystery Trader Made $553K Betting on Iran’s Supreme Leader Days Before His Death
The Magamyman account staked roughly $87,000 on a US strike contract just 71 minutes before the campaign went public — when the platform showed only a 17% probability — and walked away with more than $515,000.
A separate bet on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaving power paid out more than $553,000, placed before the airstrike killed him. Israeli police opened an investigation into whether the account had access to classified military intelligence.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six freshly created wallets that collectively netted $1.2 million on the February 28 strike date, with most funded within the final 24 hours before the attack. The largest single wallet turned roughly $61,000 into more than $493,000.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said Polymarket’s anonymity, combined with conflict-related information, “can create incentives for informed participants to act early.”
In January, an unidentified trader profited heavily on Polymarket just before US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In February, Israeli authorities charged a civilian and a military reservist with using classified intelligence to place Polymarket bets — the first known criminal prosecution tied to insider trading on a prediction market.
All of this played out on a platform that saw more than $529 million in trading volume tied to the Iran strikes alone. The ceasefire market has since added $31.7 million more, with crowd-sourced odds currently placing a ceasefire at 72% by December 31.
On March 17, Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) introduced the BETS OFF Act, which would prohibit contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and events where the bettor already controls or knows the outcome.
“They are inside Trump’s White House giving advice to the president not based on what’s best for national security but based upon what will make them money,” Murphy said. “That is unforgivable.”
Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) separately introduced legislation barring members of Congress, the president, and the vice president from trading event contracts, with fines starting at $10,000.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal’s Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act would return platform oversight to the states. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) proposed a narrower ban on war and election contracts specifically. All four bills face long odds in the Republican-controlled Congress.
Polymarket’s political entanglements complicate things. Donald Trump Jr. sits on the platform’s advisory board, and his firm, 1789 Capital, invested double-digit millions in the company.
The Trump administration dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket after taking office and later approved its US-based exchange. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has since asserted the agency’s “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and reminded platforms to list only contracts “not readily susceptible to manipulation.”
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US competitor, refused to pay out contracts tied to Khamenei’s death, citing a prohibition on bets “directly tied to death,” and issued partial refunds instead.
With Mojtaba Khamenei now holding the Supreme Leader position, Polymarket hosts 250 active Iran markets with more than $94.3 million in total volume.
Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
