Recent inflation and economic growth figures may not accurately reflect the US economy’s true health due to significant data collection gaps caused by the 43-day government shutdown, according to economists and federal officials.
On December 18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that November’s annual inflation rate reached 2.7%, a decrease from September’s 3% figure. The Bureau of Economic Analysis subsequently reported the economy expanded at a 4.3% annual rate during the third quarter. The Trump administration quickly promoted both figures as proof of successful economic policies.
The BLS could not gather price information for October 2025 during the government funding lapse that ran from October 1 through November 12. To address the missing month, the agency applied September data to October, following standard protocols for incomplete information periods.
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“You’ve got to take it with a grain of salt,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, told the Financial Times. “It’s confusing and it doesn’t quite square with prices that we’ve observed.”
Housing expenses, which constitute approximately one-third of Consumer Price Index calculations, experienced particularly severe measurement problems. The BLS recorded rental price changes as zero percent for October due to the absence of October rental data. Experts estimate six months will pass before accurate housing inflation measurements resume.
The shutdown blocked the collection of household employment information for October as well. The BLS confirmed it could not gather this data retroactively.
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett called the November inflation report “an absolute blockbuster report” and described the GDP figure as “a great Christmas present for the American people.” House Speaker Mike Johnson declared, “America is winning again,” and credited the GDP growth to congressional Republicans and the Trump administration’s policies.
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Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik reported that economists view the figures as “artifacts of the long government shutdown” rather than proof of successful economic policies.
Data reliability remains a huge concern as the BLS operates under severe budget constraints. The Center for American Progress documented that agency funding dropped more than 22% from fiscal year 2010 to fiscal year 2025 after inflation adjustment. The agency lost roughly 25% of its workforce since February 2025.
Read: US Government Job Cuts Force A Third of CPI Data to Be Based on Estimates
Seasonal price patterns escaped measurement entirely. The BLS normally captures prices during pre-Thanksgiving weeks when airfares climb, but the November 2025 data collection started on November 14, after the shutdown ended. Holiday fare increases had already reversed by the collection start date.
This means the November data collection was two weeks behind schedule. The agency stretched the collection window through November 30 to recover lost ground.
President Trump removed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer from her position in August 2025, claiming without supporting evidence that she manipulated employment figures. Economists and McEntarfer’s predecessor criticized the removal as unfounded and harmful to the agency’s independence.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in December that official employment figures likely inflate actual job growth. He calculated that the monthly job gains since April averaged negative 20,000 after correcting for known measurement problems.
The December inflation report will be released on January 13, it’s expected to provide the first comprehensive economic data since the shutdown concluded.
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