Canada’s housing market is showing a blend of growth and contraction, according to the latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). While the six-month trend in housing starts rose slightly in November, monthly figures revealed a significant decline, indicating a complex landscape in the nation’s housing sector.
In November, the six-month trend in housing starts reached 257,777 units, marking a modest 0.7% increase from October’s 255,876 units. This trend, a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of housing starts, reflects a longer-term perspective on the market’s direction.
Contrastingly, the monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada showed a sharp 22% decline in November, falling to 212,624 units from October’s 272,264 units. This decrease highlights the market’s short-term volatility and the impact of external economic factors.
Breaking down the figures, urban housing starts (in areas with over 10,000 residents) decreased by 23%, with a notable 27% drop in multi-unit urban starts to 151,297 units. Single-detached urban starts also fell by 7% to 44,066 units. This decline was particularly pronounced in major cities like Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, where total SAAR housing starts plummeted by 30% and 39%, respectively, driven primarily by a decrease in multi-unit starts.
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Rural areas, however, painted a different picture, with the monthly SAAR estimate for rural starts standing at 17,261 units.
Year-to-date figures for 2023 show a mixed trend. In Toronto and Vancouver, actual housing starts were 17% and 31% higher, respectively, compared to the same period in 2022, buoyed by an increase in multi-unit starts. However, on a national scale, year-to-date housing starts in urban centers have declined by 8%, totaling 204,721 units as of November 2023, down from 222,177 in the previous year. This decrease is largely attributed to a 27% drop in single-detached starts.
Overall, the Canadian housing market continues to navigate through a phase of adjustment, reflecting the challenges and uncertainties of the current economic environment.
Information for this briefing was found via CMHC and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
