Prime Minister Mark Carney has triggered three federal byelections for April 13 in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, creating a direct path for the Liberals to a House of Commons majority.
The Liberals currently hold 169 MPs and need all three ridings to reach 172. That would amount to the narrowest possible majority threshold described here, with Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia still expected to cast tie-breaking votes to keep government legislation moving.
Two of the three contests stem from vacancies in Toronto-area Liberal-held seats. University—Rosedale opened after former Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland left to become an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Scarborough Southwest became vacant after former Liberal MP Bill Blair was appointed Canada’s high commissioner to the UK.
Family physician Danielle Martin will carry the Liberal banner in University—Rosedale, while Serena Purdy, described as a community organizer and academic with the University of Toronto, will run there for the NDP. In Scarborough Southwest, former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum is running for the Liberals. The Conservatives have not announced candidates for either riding, based on the information provided.
Both Toronto ridings are described as safe Liberal seats, making Terrebonne the pivotal race in the majority equation.
Terrebonne is on the ballot because the Supreme Court nullified the Liberals’ one-vote federal election victory there after a Bloc Québécois challenge. The dispute centred on a supporter who complained she attempted to vote by mail using a special ballot that was not counted.
Liberal Tatiana Auguste had been declared the winner over Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne until the court invalidated the result last month.
Elections Canada says advance voting will run from April 3 to April 6 at assigned polling stations. Voters in the three ridings can also vote at their Elections Canada office any time before April 7. Mail voting remains available, with applications due by April 7. The election-day vote is set for April 13.
The timing intersects with two major party events. The federal NDP is scheduled to choose a new leader at its national convention in Winnipeg in late March, roughly two weeks before the byelections, while the Liberals will hold their national convention in Montreal from April 9 to 11, just days before voting day.
Three Conservative MPs—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux—have defected to the Liberals in recent months, helping bring the government within reach of majority status. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has accused Carney of trying to sidestep the will of Canadians by using those defections to gain a majority.
According to a Postmedia-Leger poll conducted between February 27 and March 2, 2026, Liberal support stands at 49%, up two points since late January, while Conservative support has slipped three points to 35%—the widest lead for the Liberals since February 2016.
Information for this story was found via National Post and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
