Nearly half of decided Canadian voters would back the Liberal Party if an election were held today, marking the party’s strongest polling position in a decade under Prime Minister Mark Carney. According to a Postmedia-Leger poll conducted between February 27 and March 2, 2026, Liberal support stands at 49%, up two points since late January, while Conservative support has slipped three points to 35%.
This 14-point gap is the widest lead for the Liberals since February 2016, when they also polled at 49% under then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Voter satisfaction with the Liberal government’s performance is notably high, with 59% of respondents expressing approval. Carney himself enjoys a 61% personal approval rating, including strong support in western provinces like Alberta (53%), Manitoba (59%), and Saskatchewan (59%). Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns attributed this regional backing to Carney’s approach of avoiding confrontations with specific areas of the country, contrasting with past federal leadership styles.
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In Saskatchewan, Carney’s collaboration with Premier Scott Moe has yielded tangible economic wins, further bolstering his image. Recent international trips alongside Moe have resulted in a rollback of Chinese tariffs on canola exports and a $2.6-billion deal to supply uranium to India through Saskatchewan-based Cameco. Enns noted that Moe’s public acknowledgment of these successes likely contributes to positive sentiment toward Carney among conservative-leaning voters in the province.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, face challenges as their support has stagnated around 37-38% over the past 18 months before this recent drop. Enns suggested that outdated messaging may be a factor in their declining numbers, signaling potential concern for the party’s strategy moving forward. Other parties, including the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party, remain far behind, polling at 5% each in the latest survey.
Speculation about Carney calling an early election to secure a majority persists, though half of respondents indicated a preference for the next vote to occur as scheduled in 2029.
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