Nearly half of decided Canadian voters would back the Liberal Party if an election were held today, marking the party’s strongest polling position in a decade under Prime Minister Mark Carney. According to a Postmedia-Leger poll conducted between February 27 and March 2, 2026, Liberal support stands at 49%, up two points since late January, while Conservative support has slipped three points to 35%.
This 14-point gap is the widest lead for the Liberals since February 2016, when they also polled at 49% under then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Voter satisfaction with the Liberal government’s performance is notably high, with 59% of respondents expressing approval. Carney himself enjoys a 61% personal approval rating, including strong support in western provinces like Alberta (53%), Manitoba (59%), and Saskatchewan (59%). Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns attributed this regional backing to Carney’s approach of avoiding confrontations with specific areas of the country, contrasting with past federal leadership styles.
In Saskatchewan, Carney’s collaboration with Premier Scott Moe has yielded tangible economic wins, further bolstering his image. Recent international trips alongside Moe have resulted in a rollback of Chinese tariffs on canola exports and a $2.6-billion deal to supply uranium to India through Saskatchewan-based Cameco. Enns noted that Moe’s public acknowledgment of these successes likely contributes to positive sentiment toward Carney among conservative-leaning voters in the province.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, face challenges as their support has stagnated around 37-38% over the past 18 months before this recent drop. Enns suggested that outdated messaging may be a factor in their declining numbers, signaling potential concern for the party’s strategy moving forward. Other parties, including the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party, remain far behind, polling at 5% each in the latest survey.
Speculation about Carney calling an early election to secure a majority persists, though half of respondents indicated a preference for the next vote to occur as scheduled in 2029.
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