Lucid Cuts 2023 Production Guidance, Stops Disclosing Reservation Data

Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) on Monday reported a remarkably bad quarter for a company which still carries an enterprise value (EV) of US$12 billion. Revenue and cash flow came in far below estimates, quarterly cash burn topped an astonishing US$1 billion for the first time, and revenue per car sold plunged from 4Q 2023. 

In addition, Lucid no longer provided vehicle reservation data as of this quarter, a practice the company had maintained since it began trading under the symbol LCID.


DateNumber of Lucid Air Reservations (A)
8-May-23No information provided by company
21-Feb-23> 28,000
7-Nov-22> 34,000
3-Sep-22> 37,000
5-May-22> 30,000
29-Feb-22> 25,000
15-Nov-21> 17,000
(A) All reservation figures above exclude purchase commitments of up to 100,000 vehicles by the Government of Saudi Arabia.

Lucid’s 1Q revenue was US$149 million, well below both the consensus estimate of around US$198 million and its 4Q 2022 revenue of US$258 million. The company fell victim to the vicious price war currently taking place in the electric vehicle industry. Remarkably, revenue per vehicle delivered fell 20% sequentially to around US$106,000 in 1Q 2023 from about US$133,000 in 4Q 2022.

Presumably reflecting the difficult demand environment, Lucid slashed its full-year 2023 production forecast to “more than 10,000” vehicles from its previous forecast of 10,000 to 14,000 cars. Interestingly, the current full-year forecast would imply that quarterly production during the rest of the year stays at about the 2,314-production pace of 1Q 2023.


(in thousands of US $, except production/delivery unit statistics, revenue/vehicle delivered and shares outstanding)2023 Management GuidanceTwelve Months Ended 3-31-23March 31, 2023December 31, 2022September 30, 2022
Lucid Air Vehicles Delivered5,415 1,4061,9321,398
Lucid Air Vehicles ProducedRevised to > 10,000;2,3143,4932,282
Revenue$699,938 $149,432 $257,713 $195,457 
Revenue per Vehicle Delivered$129,259 $106,282 $133,392 $139,812 
Operating Income($2,768,622)($772,161)($749,739)($687,523)
Operating Cash Flow($2,532,873)($801,264)($648,515)($569,466)
Capital ExpendituresRevised To ($1,400,000) to ($1,600,000);($1,131,522)($241,770)($289,888)($290,064)
Adjusted EBITDA ($2,234,493)($643,898)($623,610)($552,903)
Cash – Period EndRevised to “Sufficient Liquidity into 2Q 2024;”$2,978,415 $2,978,415 $3,912,996 $3,342,181 
Debt – Period End$2,082,197 $2,082,197 $2,083,762 $2,079,722 
Shares Outstanding (Millions)1,8331,8331,8291,681 

Lucid’s cash balance fell about US$930 million just in 1Q 2023 to US$2.98 billion as of March 31, 2023 from US$3.91 billion as of December 31, 2022. Inexplicably, after this drawdown Lucid pushed out the time frame that it believes it will have sufficient liquidity without raising additional funds to “into the second quarter of 2024.” In February 2023, Lucid estimated that it had ample liquidity into 1Q 2024.

Regardless of these liquidity comments, investors should be mindful that an additional equity offering could happen at any time. At its current burn rate, Lucid would run out of cash by year-end 2023 if it does not access the capital markets.

READ: Ford’s EV Business Operating Loss Signals Hard Road Startups Face to Achieving Profitability

Lucid shares have declined nearly 90% since it peaked in November 2021, but the valuation still looks far too robust. Based on its US$7.00 price in after-hours trading on May 8, its EV is, as noted above, about US$12 billion. Lucid’s revenue over the twelve months ended March 31, 2023 totaled about US$700 million, meaning the stock trades at an EV-to-revenue multiple of 17x.

Furthermore, Lucid’s adjusted EBITDA loss over the last twelve months is more than US$2.2 billion. Worryingly, the company’s quarterly losses have been increasing sequentially — US$644 million in 1Q 2023; US$624 million in 4Q 2022; US$553 million in 3Q 2022; and US$414 million in 2Q 2022. The market awarding a US$12 billion valuation to a company with such a cash flow profile is difficult to understand.

Lucid Group, Inc. last traded at US$7.71 on the NASDAQ.

Information for this story was found via Edgar and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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