The general election isn’t until October 2025, but some oil and gas producers are already anticipating that it won’t be a good one for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals — they’re taking the wait-and-see approach before making any moves to accelerate emissions cuts to comply with the Liberal government’s recently released framework.
The framework, released this month, mandates a reduction of carbon emissions by up to 38% by 2030 from 2019 levels. But with polls indicating a strong lead for opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre, who opposes the cap, there is speculation that plans for emission cuts may be abandoned if Trudeau’s Liberals lose in the expected 2025 election.
The oil and gas industry, responsible for over a quarter of Canada’s emissions, is already cutting emissions through efforts like reducing gas flaring and replacing old equipment. But the country saw a 13% rise in absolute emissions from the oil and gas sector since 2005 according to the Canadian Climate Institute. This is despite its emissions intensity, or the amount of carbon emitted per barrel of oil produced, dropping.
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With the current political climate, several small- and medium-sized oil companies are openly questioning the need to hasten emissions cuts. Alberta, Canada’s main oil-producing province, has also pledged to create a “constitutional shield” against the proposed cap.
Yangarra Resources, a company producing 12,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, emphasizes a commitment to emissions reduction as long as it remains financially viable. CEO Jim Evaskevich notes that increased spending on drastic reductions might be reconsidered if the political climate shifts.
“If we get to where we’re having to spend a lot of money to become way more draconian with our reductions, then we’re going to look at the federal election and go, ‘yeah no we’re not spending that money, no way.’ Because our fervent hope is (Trudeau) is gone,” Evaskevich told Reuters.
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