Physical crude prices have broken away from futures as the Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens, with European and Asian refiners now paying near-$150 a barrel for some grades while June Brent remains far lower.
Reuters reported that at least 12 million barrels per day, or about 12% of global supply, has been shut in from the Middle East due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures for June delivery reached $119.50 a barrel last month, the highest since 2022, but still below the 2008 record high of $147.50. Physical cargo pricing has moved much faster because refiners replacing lost Middle Eastern barrels are bidding for crude available immediately, not for paper barrels tied to later delivery windows.
Morgan Stanley explained the market is scrambling for “prompt, refinery-usable barrels” and that stress is appearing first in the part of the benchmark closest to the immediate physical supply problem.
In other words, this is not just an oil rally. It is a delivery crisis.
North Sea Forties crude, one of the clearest substitutes for disrupted flows, climbed to $146.09 a barrel on Tuesday according to LSEG data, moving above its 2008 level and setting an all-time high. That means an actual cargo in the water is already trading at levels the headline futures contract has not yet reached.
The physical benchmark underneath many of those cargoes is also flashing severe stress. Dated Brent, which reflects prompt physical deliveries rather than exchange-traded futures, was trading almost $20 a barrel above June Brent futures, according to Reuters. S&P Global Energy Platts assessed dated Brent at $141.365 on April 2, close to the 2008 record of $144.22. Using that dated Brent base would place Forties and several other physical cargoes above $150 a barrel. 
Refined products in Europe show the same pattern. Jet fuel was quoted at $226.40 a barrel on Tuesday, close to the record high reached in mid-March. Diesel stood at $203.59 a barrel, still below its 2022 peak but firmly elevated.
Asian and European refiners are driving that repricing as they compete for replacement crude from Europe and Africa. The result is a market where nearby physical grades are rising faster than benchmark futures because the marginal buyer is not a financial trader expressing a view on summer prices, but a refiner trying to secure feedstock before operations are hit.
Information for this briefing was found via Reuters and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
