President Donald Trump posted his five-day pause on Iran strikes at 7:05 AM ET Monday — two hours before US markets opened on what analysts expected to be a brutal trading session. Sen. Chris Murphy said the timing told the real story.
“Trump isn’t announcing a pause on strikes,” Murphy wrote on X. “He’s saying he’s postponing a possible war crime — strikes on Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure. Also, this isn’t a message to Iran. It’s a panicky message to the markets: ‘No war escalation until markets close on Friday.'”
Markets moved exactly as intended. Dow futures briefly surged past 1,000 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped roughly 3% within minutes of the post. Brent crude, which had touched $113 earlier that morning, shed more than 10% to settle at $99.94 a barrel. By the closing bell, the Dow gained 631 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq added 1.38% — the best session for all three indexes since the war began on February 28.
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Iran denied any talks had taken place, calling the announcement a deliberate attempt to lower energy prices.
“No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped,” Speaker of the Parliament of Iran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X.
A CNN analysis documents this broader pattern. Trump confirmed the initial Iran strikes in a video posted after markets closed on Saturday, February 28. On March 9, he told a reporter the war was “very complete, pretty much” — remarks that immediately sent markets higher until he delivered a sharply different message at a Republican gathering after markets closed that same evening.
Monday’s post arrived precisely when it would move markets most: before the open, on a day futures were already pointing to steep losses. The five-day pause expires Friday — after markets close for the weekend.
Interestingly, over $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures and $192 million in crude contracts changed hands at 6:50 AM ET — fourteen minutes before Trump’s post, in the same direction markets would move. The SEC declined to comment on the trades, as CNBC reported.
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