Global economic uncertainty reached its highest documented level on record in 2025, with a benchmark index tracking analyst reports across 143 economies surpassing every prior crisis peak — from the September 11 attacks to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The World Uncertainty Index hit 106,862 in the third quarter of 2025, according to data from its creators — economists Hites Ahir and Davide Furceri of the International Monetary Fund and Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University. The index counts how often the word “uncertain” and its variants appear in quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports across 143 economies, then scales the result to produce a comparable global reading.
The record predates the Iran conflict. The spike — labeled “Trade War” on the index’s own chart — built through 2025 as US tariff escalation, geopolitical fragmentation, and questions over Federal Reserve independence pushed readings sharply higher. The US-Israel war with Iran, which began on February 28 and has since closed the Strait of Hormuz, adds further disruption not yet fully captured in the quarterly data.
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A monthly dataset updated March 7 shows readings holding at historic levels.
The World Economic Forum’s 2026 Global Risks Report ranked geoeconomic confrontation as the top crisis trigger of the year. Nearly one in five global experts surveyed named it the likeliest spark for a major global crisis, a share that rose markedly from the year prior.
Elevated WUI readings carry real economic consequences. Companies freeze capital spending, pull back on hiring, and postpone expansion when conditions are unclear. UNCTAD warned in a separate report that policy unpredictability now functions as a structural drag on global trade — a hidden cost embedded across cross-border economic activity.
The OECD projects US headline inflation will reach 4.2% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025, with the Hormuz closure as the primary driver. Central banks across Europe and Asia that had planned rate cuts are now holding or delaying them as oil prices keep inflation above target.
The WUI measures how often analysts write the word “uncertain” — not economic output or market stress directly. The current reading stands out not just in its height but also in its breadth: professional analysts across 143 economies are documenting stress simultaneously, a condition without precedent in the index’s history.
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