An American effort to restrict Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries has encountered an unusually clear political obstacle in Kyiv: 80% of Ukrainian adults surveyed said the strikes should continue even if Washington cuts support and Moscow makes no reciprocal pledge.
On Friday, a fire at a major Russian refinery showed how fragile the reported pause had become.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian forces struck Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samara, reversing nearly two weeks without reported attacks on refineries. Footage shared by monitoring accounts appeared to show fire and smoke.
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Rosneft’s published capacity for the plant is 8.8 million metric tons a year.
The attack was reported four days before the November 3 US midterms. The WSJ had reported Thursday that Ukrainian units received instructions in mid-October to complete existing missions but suspend new refinery attacks, as President Donald Trump pressed Kyiv to curb strikes.
US envoy Jared Kushner renewed the request in an October 20 meeting with Zelensky in Oslo, according to the WSJ, citing two American officials. One official described a 30-day suspension as a way for Ukraine to recognize US mediation efforts.
The domestic backdrop was stark. In an October 16–25 telephone survey, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology asked respondents whether Ukraine should continue hitting Russian refineries even if Russia kept attacking Ukrainian energy and civilian sites and Washington reduced assistance. Eighty percent favored continuing, 11% favored stopping, and 8% were undecided.
Kyiv has framed its refinery operations as a way to undermine Russian fuel supplies and revenue used to finance the war. Zelensky has publicly sought a reciprocal halt in Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, additional Patriot interceptors, or permission to use satellite services inside Russia.
SpaceX throttled some Ukrainian military satellite service earlier in October, affecting certain drone operations before it was restored. US officials told the WSJ that restoration was not conditioned on a refinery pause, although Ukrainian officials described pressure from Washington.
