Mark Spitznagel is warning that the artificial intelligence boom could end in the largest market collapse of his lifetime, but the Universa Investments founder is making a less conventional call before that happens: he thinks risk assets may first stage another major rally.
Spitznagel told Business Insider that he agrees with Michael Burry’s concerns over excessive investment in AI chips and data centers, circular financing, and hidden liabilities.
READ: Michael Burry Pushes Bearish Tech Bets Into 2027 Despite Stocks Surging
Sponsored · Selkirk Copper Mines
His disagreement is timing. Burry, he said, is “going to get the timing wrong,” while Spitznagel expects “one more really big, risk-on, insane, euphoric rally” before conditions reverse.
Spitznagel said he currently sees excessive leverage and large speculative bets, but no immediate catalyst for a collapse. He nevertheless warned that the economy is weakening and that the delayed effects of prior interest-rate increases have not fully worked through the system.
Once the rally ends, Spitznagel said he expects a “bigger crash than we’ve seen in our lifetime.”
The AI concern overlaps with Burry’s broader attack on the economics of the infrastructure boom. In November 2025, Burry alleged that major hyperscalers were extending the useful lives of computing equipment despite rapid hardware replacement cycles, which he said would understate depreciation by $176 billion from 2026 through 2028. He estimated that Oracle could overstate 2028 earnings by 26.9%, while Meta Platforms could overstate earnings by 20.8%.
Sponsored · Altamira Gold Corp.
Spitznagel’s broader rally-then-crash thesis is not new. In September 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that he saw conditions resembling the early stages of 1929 and believed the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 before a historic decline.
What is new is Spitznagel’s explicit alignment with the AI-overinvestment case while maintaining that the bearish timing remains premature.
READ: Are Data Centers Becoming the New AI Bubble?
Universa’s reputation is built around tail-risk hedging rather than conventional market timing. Its strategy buys deeply out-of-the-money options designed to generate large gains during extreme selloffs while accepting recurring losses during normal markets.
During Q1 2020, Universa reported a 4,144% net return on the capital invested in its hedge strategy after the COVID-19 crash.
Spitznagel is often described as a “Black Swan” investor because Universa specializes in protecting portfolios against rare, extreme market shocks, an approach closely associated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan and Universa’s distinguished scientific adviser.
