Trump’s deal to bring Russian diesel to the US covers only diesel of Russian origin, but reports don’t say how anyone will check that. Treasury’s General License 135, issued October 9, authorizes transactions in Russian-origin diesel, including its import, until April 7, 2027.
Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, and 500,000 more in November, followed by 1 million and, depending on the state of its refineries, 3 million after that. Those refineries are struggling.
Russia has barred diesel exports since July, with the ban set to run through October, and maritime analytics firm Windward says it brought in gasoline and diesel from abroad in the third quarter, a first. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says its attacks have knocked out over half of Russian refining capacity, a claim the reports reviewed don’t verify.
Former International Energy Agency oil markets head Neil Atkinson said it is “very hard to see how Russia can deliver the volumes” in the short term.
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A 2022 Global Witness report found that refining pools fuel from many origins, leaving a batch’s starting point nearly impossible to establish. It also noted Treasury’s reading that Russian goods substantially transformed abroad fall outside the ban. A law-firm summary of the new license doesn’t define “Russian Federation origin,” and says the license doesn’t authorize dealings with parties blocked under other programs, such as Iran-related sanctions.
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 also targets shadow tankers moving Russian energy.
