Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne seized on a fresh OECD report Wednesday to push back against the recession narrative that has trailed the Carney government since Q1 GDP data triggered Trump’s latest round of “51st state” taunts.
The OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2026 Issue 1, released June 3, projects Canada’s real GDP growth at 1.2% for 2026 and 1.7% for 2027 — placing it second among G7 economies this year, trailing only the US at 2.0% and ahead of the UK (0.9%), Germany (0.7%), France (0.7%), Japan (0.6%), and Italy (0.5%).
“Canada is still projected to be the 2nd fastest growing economy of the G7 in 2026,” Champagne posted to X alongside the OECD chart.
READ: Canada’s Technical Recession: Carney Defends Economy While Trump Posts “51st State”
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The report attributes Canada’s 2025 slowdown to higher US tariffs and projects a recovery as trade stabilizes and household consumption picks up. It also flags an energy tailwind: as a net exporter, Canada stands to benefit from higher oil and gas prices as the Iran conflict disrupts Middle East supply.
The OECD expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% — unchanged since October 2025 — with energy-driven price increases likely temporary and persistent economic slack giving the Bank room to wait.
Statistics Canada’s advance estimate pointed to a 0.4% GDP rebound in April, which — if confirmed — would break the two-quarter streak. Whether Canada is in or has merely passed through a technical recession remains unsettled.
The OECD data shifts the frame: the question is less whether Canada stumbled and more whether the stumble matters when every other major G7 economy outside the US is projected to grow more slowly this year.
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