A new report by Desjardins finds that Canadian population growth has largely remained at its previously high levels, despite a series of pledges by the Trudeau government to significantly reduce immigration.
In October, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced new controls on immigration aimed at “pausing population growth,” expressing regret for not acting sooner to “turn off the taps faster.”
However, the analysis reveals that while admissions of international students have decreased dramatically over the past four months, Canada continues to accept similar numbers of temporary foreign workers and permanent immigrants.
Desjardins remains skeptical about the government’s ability to reach its lower target for newcomer admissions, noting that the federal government has struggled to meet policy objectives in the past. The report suggests that more aggressive reductions would be necessary to achieve the desired population targets.
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Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trudeau government increased immigration intake to record levels, with Canada’s population surging by 3.5 million in just three years, equivalent to adding the entire population of Metro Vancouver. This influx of newcomers helped stabilize Canadian GDP but came at a significant cost to affordability and social cohesion.
Trudeau acknowledged the pressure on the system, particularly regarding rents and home prices, and multiple surveys have shown Canadians calling for a reduction in immigration. A Leger poll from October found 65% of respondents saying too many immigrants were coming to Canada.
Under the revised immigration figures, Canada is supposed to be on course for negative population growth in 2025 and 2026, with a planned reduction of about one million people across both years. While the intake of international students has decreased by about 280,000 compared to 2023, the number of temporary foreign workers remains essentially unchanged, and the pledged cuts to permanent migration have not yet taken effect.
Desjardins concludes that the federal government is still far from achieving its population targets, citing a spike in asylum claims driven in part by international students claiming refugee status following the expiration of their visas. Canada took in 28,000 asylum claimants in 2024, a 20% increase over the previous year.
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