Canada’s Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect, and Bigger Threats Loom

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on the US took effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, covering $27.6 billion in American goods at rates of 15%, 25% or 50%, varying by product. The measures match the US’s own 50% tariffs on Canadian goods dollar for dollar, hitting more than 700 products across sectors like dairy, agricultural equipment, aluminum, steel and household appliances. 

Steel and aluminum tariffs doubled to 50% under the new measures, bringing Canada’s rate in line with what the US already charges on those same Canadian metals, and goods already en route to Canada when the deadline hit are exempt.

Read: Canada Matches U.S. Levies with $27.6B in Counter-Tariffs

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One item on that list stands out for how ordinary it is — toilet paper. No country ships more of it to the US than Canada does. US-based mills aren’t insulated either — Canadian softwood pulp accounts for close to a third of the fiber in a typical American-made roll, so the tariffs hit that supply chain twice, once on the raw pulp and once on the finished product. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has downplayed the risk, putting Canadian imports at just 0.06% of what Americans consume and adding that “there’s no possible way it can really affect US well-being.”

Read: Canada’s Tariffs Threaten a Repeat of America’s Covid-Era Toilet Paper Panic

Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose the original US duties, arguing Canadian practices around alcohol, dairy, and vehicles unfairly disadvantaged American businesses. On Canada’s side, only products that trace their origin to the US under Canada’s marking regulations get hit with the new duties. Importers pay the cost at the border, then decide whether to absorb it or pass it on to customers.

Washington’s own 50% tariffs on Canadian goods took effect August 22, hours after Carney walked away from the table over last-minute changes Washington made to the deal.

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Read: What Washington Really Demanded Before Canada Walked Away

The rejected framework would have brought steel duties down to 25% on a set quota of Canadian shipments, cut the aluminum rate in half to 25%, and eliminated a 10% tariff on softwood lumber. In exchange, Canada would have dropped its retaliatory auto tariffs, loosened dairy supply-management rules and ended provincial boycotts of American alcohol. 

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly intervened late in the negotiations, pushing to keep aluminum out of any tariff relief and narrow the auto concessions so they wouldn’t cover medium- and heavy-duty trucks — changes that would have hit General Motors‘ Oshawa plant and Ford‘s planned Oakville retool. Some analysts have since argued the rejected deal may have been better for Canada than the trade war that replaced it.

Read: Trump escalates Canada trade war with 50% auto tariffs 

Prime Minister Mark Carney has cast the response as reluctant, saying some US companies and states are “innocent bystanders” in a trade dispute they didn’t choose. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne struck a harder note, saying the US tariffs “will have real consequences for Canadian workers, businesses, and communities across our nation.”

Read: Carney Says US Wanted to ‘Wipe Out’ Canadian Industries in Trade Talks

Trump has kept a personal edge on the dispute throughout. After Carney accused US negotiators of demanding French-language concessions in the failed talks, Trump dismissed the claim as a lie invented “to gain political support” in Quebec. He has threatened to extend the 50% tariff rate to Canadian vehicles and auto parts starting January 1, 2027. The same week, he moved to bar Bombardier from selling in the US entirely unless it builds aircraft domestically, a threat Quebec’s premier and a Republican Kansas senator have both pushed back on.

Trump also went further than rhetoric once already, putting his signature on an order in late August that rebrands Lake Ontario as “Lake America.” “This is official, effective immediately,” he said at the signing, adding that he’d already filed the necessary paperwork. The change only governs how the US federal government refers to the lake and carries no weight over Canada or international usage, but Carney fired back on social media, noting the lake’s centuries-old Indigenous name predates both countries and that “naming reality means calling it Lake Ontario – then, now and always.”

Read: Trump Personally Called Apple to Rename Lake Ontario 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has renewed his threat to cut off Canadian electricity exports to the US if the trade war keeps escalating — the province supplies power to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. Acting alone wouldn’t be enough, he said, calling for a “Team Canada approach” from the other provinces that also export power south.

Canada’s new duties touch roughly 6% of what it buys from the US, and the US tariffs that triggered them cover about 5% of what America buys from Canada. Alongside the tariffs, Ottawa is putting $7.5 billion toward supporting Canadian businesses and workers hurt by the trade war.

Trump’s approval rating has slid to 33% in recent polling, matching the weakest reading Reuters/Ipsos has recorded for him. A separate poll from the same firm found little enthusiasm for the fight — only one in five Americans backed raising tariffs on Canada, while 57% opposed doing so.

Related: Loonie Loony: Trump Complains About the Canadian Dollar, Says ‘Imbalance with the US Is Unacceptable’

Information for this briefing was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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