President Trump announced Monday that the US is “working on a massive Deal” to buy potash from Belarus, posting on Truth Social that the pricing would be “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada” and calling it good news for American farmers. Except within hours, Belarus’s president said there’s nothing to sell.
“We simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted,” Alexander Lukashenko said Monday, dismissing any deal with Trump before it could even take shape.
Every round of tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada this year has specifically excluded potash, alongside energy and critical minerals — true of the 50% tariffs he imposed under a 1930s trade law in July, and of the broader global tariff regime his administration has relied on since a Supreme Court ruling this year struck down his original emergency-powers approach.
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Canada supplies the overwhelming majority of potash the US imports, and nothing in Trump’s own trade policy suggests his administration believes that can change quickly.
Related: Canada’s Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect, and Bigger Threats Loom
No single region comes close to Saskatchewan’s share of the market — it alone produces more than 30% of the world’s potash — and Belarusian supply would have to reach the US by rail through Russia and Russian-controlled ports, since the Baltic route through Lithuania is closed to it.
Fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX told reporters, “I’m afraid the impact would be limited,” adding that supply hasn’t been a problem for US buyers and that Belarus is unlikely to displace Canada as the top supplier anytime soon.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe called it “blood potash,” noting that more than 40 countries sanction Belarus over its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has separately warned Trump against the arrangement.
