Chileans will head to the polls on November 16 to elect a president who will determine the fate of the country’s mining sector, including the debt-laden state copper giant Codelco and the nation’s emerging lithium industry.
The election pits Communist candidate Jeannette Jara, who favors continued state control, against right-wing contenders Evelyn Matthei and José Antonio Kast, both advocating for partial privatization of key mining assets.
The central issue is Codelco’s financial crisis. The state-owned company carries more than $20 billion in debt and operates with outdated infrastructure after production dropped to a 25-year low in 2022. Government requirements that Codelco transfer 70% of profits to state coffers have limited reinvestment capabilities.
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“Chile’s election is a referendum on how to balance resource nationalism with economic pragmatism,” said John Zadeh, CEO of junior mining investment firm Discovery Alert.
The outcome carries global implications. Chile produces nearly a quarter of the world’s copper and ranks among the top lithium suppliers, making its mining policies critical for worldwide clean energy and electrification initiatives.
Matthei, representing the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, and far-right candidate Kast both propose opening Codelco to private investment and selling non-core assets to reduce debt. They argue private capital would improve efficiency and restore financial health.
Jara, who won the left-wing Unity for Chile coalition’s primary in June with 60% of the vote, opposes the current government’s proposed joint venture between Codelco and lithium miner SQM. She prefers creating a new public company to develop lithium resources, similar to Codelco’s role in copper.
Recent polling shows Kast leading with 24% support, followed by Jara at 16% and Matthei at 10%. Most scenarios suggest a December runoff between Kast and Jara if no candidate wins a majority.
Mining accounts for roughly 15% of Chile’s GDP while generating more than half of export revenues. The country’s copper commission forecasts Chile’s global copper output share will rise from 23.6% last year to 27.3% by 2034, contingent on successful policy implementation.
Chile’s economy grew 2.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, buoyed by mining activity. However, long-term stability depends on resolving Codelco’s financial troubles and creating a regulatory environment that attracts investment without triggering social unrest.
The new president will also oversee the implementation of recently passed legislation that aims to reduce mining project approval times by 30-70%, addressing regulatory bottlenecks that have deterred billions in potential investments.
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