Equinor has revised its recoverable reserve estimate for Bay du Nord upward to 550 million barrels, a figure that now stands nearly double the 300 million barrels projected when the deepwater project was first conceived and well above the 430 million barrels cited in more recent assessments.
At Equinor’s Capital Markets Day presentation at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, senior executive Geir Tungesvik presented the updated number and described Bay du Nord as “a basin-opener for Equinor in Canada.” Tungesvik, who oversees projects, drilling and procurement for the Norwegian energy company, said a final investment decision is expected in early 2027.
Situated roughly 500 kilometres from the Newfoundland coast, Bay du Nord would be Canada’s first deepwater oil development and would sit farther offshore than any other producing oil project on earth. Total development costs are pegged at around $14 billion, with first oil targeted for 2031 should the project move forward.
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The road to that decision has not been straightforward. Equinor announced in 2023 that it was pausing Bay du Nord for up to three years to rework its economics, eventually narrowing the scope from five discoveries in the area down to two. That restructuring reduced costs by approximately 30 per cent.
The Newfoundland and Labrador government has significant skin in the game. A recently signed benefits agreement is projected to channel roughly $6.4 billion to the province across the first 25 years of the project, with revenue flowing through a combination of royalties, taxation, and a potential ownership stake that the province is weighing whether to take up this year.
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