Inflation stoked by the war with Iran has pushed the Federal Reserve back into tightening mode, and on Wednesday the central bank lifted its benchmark lending rate by a quarter point. It was the first such increase in more than three years.
The move carried the overnight funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, following a 12-0 vote by the Federal Open Market Committee that markets had largely anticipated. The action reverses one of the three cuts delivered last year and stands as the first hike since July 2023.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said in its post-meeting statement. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
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What made the decision atypical was its reasoning. Higher fuel costs stemming from the Iran war, along with the residual effects of tariffs, have produced the sort of inflation the Fed would ordinarily see past. Concern has grown, however, that prolonged energy price pressure could lift inflation expectations and ripple more broadly through the economy. The scale of investment flowing into artificial intelligence is viewed as another possible driver of price increases.
Wednesday’s action was the debut major policy step for new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Trump named Warsh to the post after leaning on the central bank again and again to lower rates, and the hike now sets the chairman against the White House.
The path ahead points toward further tightening, according to updated projections. Among the 18 participants, 16 anticipated another hike this year, and four of them saw room for two more. Warsh has opted against submitting a dot since assuming the role. Later years carry no increases, with a single cut marked for 2028 and at least one for 2029.
The committee raised its inflation forecasts as well, pegging headline personal consumption expenditures at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for the year, both 0.1 percentage point higher than the June figures. A return to the 2% target is not anticipated until 2029. Officials also cut their unemployment projection to 4.1%, pointing to a stabilizing labor market.
