Copper mining stocks jumped 108% in 2025, but Goldman Sachs warns current prices aren’t justified and expects a 14% correction to $11,200 per metric ton by late 2026.
Copper hit $13,200 per ton this month — record highs driven by tariff fears and US stockpiling rather than fundamentals. Goldman projects a 300,000 ton global surplus in 2026, contradicting the tight market narrative.
The 22% rally since November stems from temporary factors: tariff-driven inventory builds, improving sentiment and technical trading, Goldman’s January 13 note states.
Goldman favors copper equities that perform without higher prices. First Quantum Minerals rates as the top pick on production growth and gold exposure. HudBay Minerals is said to offer 32% free cash flow yield through 2028. Ero Copper shows 12%-16% potential in 2026-2027.
The bank maintains a neutral position on Capstone Copper and a sell rating on Southern Copper, citing limited growth and high valuations respectively.
US importers stockpiled copper ahead of potential tariffs. Trump’s commerce department faces a June 2026 deadline on tariff recommendations. Goldman sees 55% odds of a 15% levy.
Once tariff clarity arrives, stockpiling ends and oversupplied fundamentals return to focus. Goldman raised its first-half 2026 forecast to $12,750 per ton but warns prices above $13,000 aren’t sustainable.
Goldman projects deficits from 2029 as AI, EVs and grid expansion drive demand. The bank forecasts $15,000 per ton by 2035.
Related: Copper Shortage Threatens AI Boom as Demand Set to Surge 50% by 2040
China committed $320 billion for copper-intensive transmission lines through 2026. US needs 60% grid expansion for net-zero and AI power demands.
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