Major fund managers are signaling the dawn of a mining supercycle, with investments in the sector surging at an unprecedented pace. Assets under management in mining exchange-traded funds soared to $87.4 billion by March 31, 2026, more than doubling from $37 billion a year earlier, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure, defense spending, and a retreat from overvalued tech stocks.
In the first quarter alone, investors funneled $8.24 billion into mining, a stark $10.8 billion reversal from the outflows of $2.52 billion seen in the same period of 2025, when U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump rattled markets. BlackRock portfolio manager Evy Hambro described this as “the early stages of a commodity supercycle,” highlighting a surge in capital investment for grid infrastructure, data centers, electric vehicles, and charging stations.
Industrial metals are taking center stage in this rally. Copper funds drew $198 million in March, while gold, despite a year-to-date gain of nearly $1 billion in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, saw $710 million in outflows last month as investors pivoted away from traditional safe havens. The ongoing Iran conflict has further shifted focus toward real-economy responses, with markets betting on infrastructure and energy security investments that prioritize copper, steel, and rare earths.
Oil and gas funds also saw inflows of nearly $6 billion in the first quarter, reinforcing the broader rotation to hard assets. Diversified miners like BHP and Rio Tinto, both of which hit record share highs this year, are positioned to capitalize on multiple demand drivers.
“Copper is very much in demand, aluminum very much in demand, even more so now, as the Iran crisis unfolds,” said Anix Vyas, portfolio manager at Harding Loevner.
Yet, the small size of metals markets raises concerns about volatility. Trading volumes for copper and aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange reached $21 trillion last year, and gold futures on the CME hit $25 trillion—figures dwarfed by the $85 trillion in Nasdaq-100 futures and $135 trillion in S&P 500 futures. This disparity suggests heavy inflows could magnify price swings, especially given bottlenecks in mining, refining, and transport.
Valuations also hint at further upside. Major mining companies trade at 7 to 8 times EV/EBITDA, well below the 14 times multiples of the 2008-2010 boom. Charlie Aitken, group investment director at Regal Partners, which managed A$21 billion as of March 31, remains bullish on copper, predicting prices could “double or triple over the next decade” while producers deliver even greater returns.
The sector’s modest footprint—top five mining firms account for just 0.4% of the MSCI ACWI Index compared to 16.8% for top tech companies—underscores its potential for outsized impact. As sentiment continues to shift, mining deals in Q1 2026 reached $21.6 billion, marking the strongest start to a year since 2023.
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