A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil tankers near Russia’s Black Sea coast has forced Kazakhstan to cut crude production and is threatening fuel supplies across Europe, with Romania the most exposed.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which moves roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports to the export terminal at Novorossiysk, suspended loading repeatedly over four days after drones struck four tankers waiting to load Kazakh crude, hitting the Nordic Zenith on July 17, the Asia and Nissos Ios on July 19, and the Nelsa on July 20, according to CPC and Kazakhstan’s energy ministry.
Ukraine’s General Staff has separately reported striking at least 89 Russia-linked tankers across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between July 8 and July 20, part of a broader campaign against vessels it says supply the Russian military.
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The Asia was carrying oil from the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil venture, though Chevron said the strike had no impact on its operations or exports. The Nissos Ios was loading crude tied to the Kashagan field, which the North Caspian Operating Company runs. Media reports linked the Nordic Zenith to ExxonMobil, though the company declined to discuss the vessel’s operational details. CPC said none of the four tankers sank or spilled oil, and crews quickly extinguished the fires that broke out.
A Ukrainian naval drone knocked out one of CPC’s three single-point moorings near Novorossiysk on November 29 last year, and the terminal operated at reduced capacity for weeks afterward. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry condemned that strike as a deliberate attack on civilian energy infrastructure and said it would pursue compensation under international law. Russia has since restricted nighttime shipping near Novorossiysk, citing the ongoing drone threat.
Production cuts and overflowing tanks
Kazakhstan’s energy ministry confirmed on Thursday that domestic oil firms had cut daily output, but called it a purely technical adjustment rather than a policy shift. CPC’s restricted intake had filled the terminal’s onshore reservoirs, Reuters reported, forcing firms to scale back before those tanks overran. CPC told the Moscow Times its production and technical facilities remained fully intact and would resume once conditions normalize, though it gave no timeline.
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The cuts follow a similar drop in early December, when the November mooring strike pushed CPC Blend shipments to their lowest level in 14 months and cut total flows through the terminal 19%, to about 1.08 million barrels a day.
CPC deliveries have averaged around 1.7 million barrels a day over the past three months, sending roughly 1.42 million barrels a day to Europe and 280,000 to Asian buyers, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data cited by OilPrice.com.
Kazakhstan has no comparable substitute route, so a single chokepoint effectively controls the bulk of the country’s oil revenue, leaving Astana with little cushion when CPC goes offline.
Romania in the crosshairs
Kazakh crude supplies just over half of the oil processed at Romania’s refineries, and the Petromidia refinery in Năvodari draws more than 80% of its feedstock from Kazakh barrels. Economic consultant Adrian Negrescu calculated that Romania covers 77% of its oil needs through imports and that Kazakhstan accounts for 63% of those imports, making Romania the most exposed country in Europe to the CPC halt.
Romania’s interim economy minister, Irineu Darău, said on Wednesday the government would look for solutions if the halt drives up fuel prices, but cautioned that any intervention needed to be proportionate and carefully timed.
Kazakhstan supplied the European Union with about 55.8 million tonnes of crude in 2025, ranking among the bloc’s top three suppliers alongside the United States and Norway and covering 12% to 15% of EU oil imports. Italy takes the largest share by value, buying Kazakh crude mainly through Eni‘s supply network, while the Netherlands, Germany and Greece also import significant volumes.
Oil markets already on edge
Brent crude surged more than 7% on Thursday to around $101 a barrel, its highest level since May, as Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea compounded fears already stoked by renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and instability around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has gained more than 30% this month, and the CPC halt is compounding that volatility rather than driving it.
S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said the impact on Mediterranean crude differentials could stay contained if loading resumes quickly, but that prices would likely climb further if the suspension drags on. CPC Blend was trading at roughly a $2.65-a-barrel discount to Dated Brent as of mid-July, a gap that reflects both the grade’s quality and the rising cost of insuring cargoes moving through an active conflict zone.
No easy alternative
After the November mooring strike, Kazakhstan shifted about 300,000 tonnes through its KazTransOil system via the Atyrau-Samara link, rail and pipeline routes into China, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan corridor. That volume covered roughly 0.4% of CPC’s 2025 throughput, underscoring how little spare capacity exists outside the main pipeline.
A commentary in Russian state media argued CPC’s Western shareholders, including Chevron and ExxonMobil, should fund their own anti-drone defenses for the terminal and its tankers rather than relying on government intervention, since the consortium has no real long-term backup route for Kazakh oil.
A former adviser to Kazakhstan’s energy minister called the strikes a new threshold in the conflict, arguing that combatants had previously targeted commercial tankers only while underway at sea, never while docked and actively loading cargo.
One Response
This is Kazakhstani crude, loading to end up in Europe (Romania, Italy, etc.)to be refined. Where’s the Russian connection? Why is Ukraine doing this Kazakhstan?