Carney Says Trump Call Builds on Trade Deal Outlines Days Before Midterms

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had a “good conversation” with President Donald Trump on the future of Canada-US trade, and Canadian and US teams will keep working toward a deal in the coming weeks. Neither side has announced terms.

Carney posted Sunday that the call builds on recent discussions about the outlines of a deal that would protect jobs, lower household costs and safeguard Canadian culture, language and sovereignty. His teams will work “in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome,” he wrote. The post came two days before the US midterm elections.

Trump told reporters in Dubuque, Iowa, that he had spoken with Carney the day before and that the two countries have a deal in concept that would help American farmers. The deal would include Keystone XL. “They’re going to build the Keystone Pipeline,” he said of Canada, adding that “they” would pay for all of it and that the US would give them the route, which he said is largely settled. 

Former President Joe Biden revoked the original project’s key permit in 2021, and the version now in development differs from it. Energy analyst Heather Exner-Pirot noted on X that the updated project is a partnership between Canada’s South Bow and the US company Bridger Pipeline, that it has secured 20-year shipper contracts and that neither government needs to fund it. 

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South Bow says the Prairie Connector would carry 550,000 barrels a day from Alberta to Wyoming on a different US route, reusing some Keystone XL pipe. It expects a final investment decision by mid-2027. Chief executive Bevin Wirzba has said South Bow will not move ahead without a US permit that a future administration cannot revoke.

Canada ended trade talks in August after Carney said Washington made late demands that endangered Canadian sovereignty, French-language rules and the auto sector. Trump then imposed 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, and Canada hit back with its own. The sides later returned to the table, progress has been uneven and they have discussed relief on steel and autos. Trump said October 23 that he would lift some of the 50% tariffs while adding new ones on dozens of other products.

Read: Ottawa Walks Away from Trade Table over Late U.S. Term Changes 

Carney said on October 26 that any progress comes because the US is coming closer to Canada’s position. On October 28, he said Canada was not yet in a position to strike a deal before the midterms.

Tariffs have become a campaign issue in northern states. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, has run an ad calling for an end to the tariff war, and Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, has urged the White House to cut tariffs on Canadian goods that farmers and businesses use, according to a report. 

Trump recently boasted at a Michigan rally that Canada is “willing to give us anything.” This does not appear to be the case.

Frank McKenna, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington, said on October 27 that Canada holds the stronger hand and that Trump needs a deal fairly urgently because of the midterms. Tom Clark, a former Canadian consul general in New York, said the US side is setting Canada up to be “the bad guys” if Republicans lose, according to a CTV News report. He responded to US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s accusation that Canadian politicians are trying to influence the midterms, which he ridiculed as a bad cartoon episode. 

The US embassy in Ottawa backed the accusation on October 21 with a fact sheet citing Industry Minister Mélanie Joly’s tariff comments, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s anti-tariff ad campaign and a Liberal MP’s campaigning in Florida. It presented no evidence of a coordinated Canadian government effort. Clark said Republicans fear losing the House and are looking for someone to blame.

Read: US Embassy Accuses Canadian Officials of Trying to Influence Midterm Elections

Information for this briefing was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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