Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared a new oil pipeline out of Alberta as ‘more likely than not,’ citing heightened global demand for secure energy sources amid the ongoing war in Iran and Canada’s push to access Asian markets. In a rare interview, Carney emphasized the strategic need to diversify export routes for Alberta’s oil production.
The pipeline, though not yet certain, forms part of a broader energy strategy tied to a memorandum of understanding signed with Alberta late last year. Carney stressed the dual focus of expanding export capacity while reducing emissions associated with oil production. ‘It’s all part of a bigger package,’ he noted, signaling ongoing efforts to align economic and environmental goals.
Route options remain fluid. While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has pushed for a pipeline to British Columbia’s north coast, opposition from Coastal First Nations and B.C. Premier David Eby poses significant challenges. Carney, however, kept alternatives on the table, stating, ‘There are multiple routes where there could be a pipeline.’ Federal discussions have reportedly leaned toward a southern route to minimize environmental and Indigenous resistance.
Adding to the momentum, Carney pointed to the recent U.S. approval of the Bridger Pipeline expansion, authorized by President Donald Trump via a presidential permit earlier this week. This project, seen as a partial revival of the previously scrapped Keystone XL pipeline, underscores potential cross-border collaboration on energy infrastructure.
Despite optimism in Calgary, a critical hurdle remains—no energy company has yet committed to building the pipeline. Carney also clarified that Canada would not use energy or critical minerals as bargaining chips in upcoming trade negotiations with the U.S., maintaining a firm stance on economic diplomacy. The next steps hinge on securing private sector backing and finalizing a viable route by late 2026, as federal and provincial talks intensify.
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