Gold has now fallen for nine consecutive sessions — its longest losing streak since 2023 — trading near $4,250 as of Monday. Silver has tracked even lower, sliding to around $65 per ounce. What the price charts don’t show is who wasn’t selling.
Read: Gold Sheds Nearly $400 in Two Sessions as Hawkish Fed and Hot Inflation Data Hammer Precious Metals
Central banks kept buying. The Iran conflict driving oil above $110 and forcing the Fed’s hawkish hand is the same conflict reinforcing sovereign demand for physical reserves held outside Western clearing systems — cutting against the paper selloff, not with it.
Physical dealers reported steady demand at lower spot prices. COMEX registered silver inventories had already fallen more than 70% from their 2021 levels before this rout began — more than 33 million ounces withdrawn in a single week in January.
Shanghai physical premiums hit $8 per ounce over Western benchmarks at peak stress. That gap between paper price and physical availability hasn’t closed.
The driver is leveraged futures positioning unwinding, not a structural reassessment. Pepperstone Research Strategist Dilin Wu called it “a pricing logic adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.” The January CME margin hike — raising gold futures margins to 8% from 6% and silver to 15% from 11% — flushed the first wave of leveraged longs.
The Fed’s March 18 dot plot, signaling just one cut for the year, triggered the second. A ninth session of losses suggests a third wave is still working through.
None of the major banks has moved their targets. JP Morgan sees gold pushing toward $5,000 by Q4, with $6,000 a longer-term possibility. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank sit in the $6,000–$6,300 range.
JP Morgan projects silver averaging $81 per ounce for the year — more than double its 2025 average — on solar, EV, and electronics demand.
Information for this story was found via the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
