JPMorgan CEO Warns That The US Could Be Heading Into ‘Something Worse’ Than A Recession

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is seeing storm clouds ahead. 

According to a Yahoo! Finance report published over the weekend, Dimon spoke at a client call on Tuesday and gave his forecast. The chief executive described the economy as “strong” but pointed out “storm clouds” in the form of Russia’s war in Ukraine, China, oil, rates, and quantitative tightening.

“It is a strong economy. Consumers’ balance sheets are in good shape. Businesses are equally in good shape,” he said, according to the Yahoo report. “When you forecast, you have to think differently. What is out there?”

“There are storm clouds. Rates, QT, oil, Ukraine, war, China. If I had to put odds: soft landing 10%. Harder landing, mild recession, 20%, 30%. Harder recession, 20%, 30%. And maybe something worse at 20% to 30%. It is a bad mistake to say ‘here is my single point forecast.’”

He acknowledged the strangeness of today’s environment, asking “have you seen a recession where unemployment is going down?”

Dimon also said that the Fed’s 4% prediction by end of the year, which is half of the current rate, is “highly unlikely.” And while company owners will say that prospects are good, confidence is low “because of inflation, because of partisan politics, and a lot of leftover anger from COVID-19.” 

“I wish we had the spirit that we were all here to work together but it seems we just got nastier somehow,” he added.

It seems that while still bleak, the JPMorgan boss’ recent forecast is a lot less ominous than his outlook back in June at the Bernstein conference where he said that “they’re big storm clouds. It’s a hurricane.”

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Information for this briefing was found via Yahoo! Finance and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.