OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day for June, a decision made during an online meeting of seven key members on Sunday, even as the ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade render the increase largely symbolic.
The quota hike, consistent with increases of 206,000 barrels per day in March and April adjusted for the United Arab Emirates’ recent exit, involves Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. Saudi Arabia’s quota will climb to 10.291 million barrels per day, though actual production stood at just 7.76 million barrels per day in March.
Total OPEC+ output averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, a sharp decline of 7.7 million barrels from February, with war-related export constraints hitting Gulf producers hardest.
Physical supply remains throttled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil exports, following the outbreak of conflict on February 28. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait—key producers with untapped reserves—are unable to ramp up exports, and oil executives warn it could take weeks or months to normalize flows even if the strait reopens. The disruption has already driven oil prices above $125 per barrel, a four-year high, with analysts predicting jet fuel shortages within one to two months and a surge in global inflation.
Despite the limited real-world impact, OPEC+ is projecting an image of control and continuity. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, noted the dual intent behind the move: to signal that the UAE’s departure from the 21-member group does not disrupt operations and to assert dominance over global oil markets. The group’s statement avoided any mention of the UAE, which left on Friday after announcing plans to expand output independently through state-owned ADNOC.
The UAE’s exit marks a significant shift, with ADNOC committing $55 billion to new projects over the next two years and targeting a production increase to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, well beyond its last OPEC+ quota of around 3.5 million barrels. Analysts at Kpler called the withdrawal a major event for OPEC, raising concerns that other members like Iraq or Kazakhstan, often criticized for exceeding quotas, might follow suit.
Russia, OPEC+’s second-largest producer, has benefited from soaring energy prices but struggles to meet its own quotas amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine and drone attacks on oil facilities. Meanwhile, total OPEC+ output with quotas fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March against a target of 36.73 million, a shortfall of roughly 9 million barrels driven by war disruptions.
OPEC+ will reconvene on June 7 to reassess the situation, as Gulf supply constraints continue to reshape global energy dynamics.
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