Alberta Premier Danielle Smith claims a private company will unveil “probably within weeks” a plan for a new crude line from Alberta to British Columbia’s northwest coast—yet scarce are the details on how the multi-billion-dollar venture will manifest.
Smith told Bloomberg she is “in active discussions with major energy companies” and believes a coastal route “is the most credible and the most economic of all of the pipeline proposals” now on industry drawing boards.
But asked which firm is ready to file, she offered only: “I think there will be a private proponent… Probably weeks.”
The announcement is extremely noteworthy because the venture must overcome the political, financial, and legal gauntlet that has buried every west coast pipe since Northern Gateway.
Potential bidders are keeping their powder dry. Neither Enbridge—whose Northern Gateway was quashed in 2016—nor Keystone owner South Bow reportedly replied to requests for comment.
South Bow, spun out of TC Energy last year and already carrying 20% of Canada’s exports south, is prized by income investors for its 7% dividend but is also lugging a balance sheet “heavier and less diversified than peers,” analysts warned at its TSX debut.
Smith’s optimism hinges on Ottawa’s freshly passed Bill C-5, which promises a two-year, fast-track review for projects deemed to serve the “national interest.” Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to publish that priority list this summer and it seems Smith wants her mystery pipeline at the top.
The development comes not too far from Trans Mountain’s federally-backed expansion that ballooned to $34 billion.
“I don’t think anybody thinks $34 billion would’ve happened if that was a private sector project,” Smith said, vowing that any new line must be fully investor funded. Her “grand bargain” would pair the pipe with a carbon-capture megaproject, the revenue from one subsidising the other.
Critics however fear that industry CFOs may balk at tying two capital-intensive bets together, especially while global crude demand forecasts drift lower.
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