US President Donald Trump has pushed a surge in support for Canada’s Liberal Party, helping narrow the gap with the leading Conservatives as voters express growing alarm over US-Canada relations, according to two polls released this week.
The latest Nanos Research survey shows Liberal support jumping to 33.3%, just 3.6 percentage points behind the Conservatives at 36.9%, while an Abacus Data poll found the Conservative lead shrinking to 12 points, down from 17 points in previous polling.
“Nanos weekly tracking now has the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals narrowing even further,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, citing rising concerns about Trump as a key factor.
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Both polls identify Trump as highly unpopular among Canadian voters, with 68% holding negative views of him according to Abacus. The Liberals now lead by 10 points among voters who rate Trump and his administration as a top issue.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have also improved, with Abacus reporting his negative impressions falling 8 points in two months as positive views climbed 7 points.
National optimism has reached a two-year high, with 30% of Canadians now believing the country is headed in the right direction – an 11-point increase since mid-December, according to Abacus.
The Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool has expanded by approximately 3 million Canadian adults since December, Abacus found, with 66% of past Liberal voters saying they would vote Liberal again, up 16 points since Trudeau’s resignation announcement.
Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney could further boost Liberal fortunes if he becomes party leader. Abacus data suggests Carney might add 6 percentage points to Liberal support, potentially narrowing the Conservative lead to just 4 points.
The Nanos survey contacted 1,026 Canadians between January 24 and February 21, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20-25, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
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