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US-Iran MOU: Obama’s Iran Deal Was Called ‘The Worst Ever’… But Was It, Though?

Bloomberg published what it describes as the full 14-point draft text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on Tuesday, ahead of a formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday. The document commits both countries to an immediate end to hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day negotiating window — while leaving virtually every hard question about Iran’s nuclear programme to later talks.

The 14 points include an immediate ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon; mutual non-interference pledges; the lifting of the US naval blockade and restoration of Strait traffic within 30 days; Iranian mine-clearing in the waterway; temporary US Treasury waivers for Iranian crude oil, petrochemical, and related service exports; and the progressive release of frozen Iranian funds tied to compliance with a final agreement. 

The Bloomberg version also describes a $300 billion minimum reconstruction programme for Iran, funded by the US and regional partners if a final deal is reached.

Bloomberg’s draft contains no stipulation for an immediate frozen assets release — a detail Reuters separately reported, citing an Iranian official, at $25 billion. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency went further, saying that the 60-day negotiations would not commence until Tehran receives half its frozen funds, sees oil sanctions suspended, and the naval blockade lifted — conditions suggesting the two sides may still be reading the agreement differently.

Read: US, Iran Offer Conflicting Accounts of Deal’s Financial Terms Ahead of June 19 Signing

As of Tuesday, Iran had not yet received any frozen assets from the US or other countries.

The signing — and who signed what

Trump and Vance both electronically signed the MOU on Sunday, June 15. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf signed for Iran. The Friday Geneva ceremony is the formal physical signing — Vance and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will represent the US. 

Trump, attending the G7 in Évian, told reporters he would “probably be gone by then.” Vance, he said, “was originally going to do it.”

This version of the agreement came together in a final push. Qatari mediator Ali Al-Thawadi drove the last round of negotiations in Tehran, speaking by phone multiple times with Trump envoys Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trump’s announcement that a deal had been finalized came as a surprise to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who found himself in the dark and had to call Trump allies to find out what was in it.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already begun increasing, according to a senior US official, though it is “ramping up slowly over time.” The US will maintain its current military force posture in the region throughout the 60-day negotiation period, with a planned reduction only if a final agreement is reached.

How the White House is selling it

The administration circulated a talking points document framing the deal as a direct improvement on the 2015 JCPOA. It states: “Obama never even got a signed document. President Trump did, from strength, after dismantling Iran’s program.” 

It argues Iran’s immediate financial gains — oil revenue waivers and progressively released frozen assets — come from Iran’s own blocked funds, not US taxpayer dollars, and that any reconstruction costs fall to regional partners.

The White House talking points assert Iran committed to “no nuclear weapon” and that its enriched material will be neutralized under direct IAEA supervision. Vance told Fox News that the deal “absolutely” includes a nuclear-disarmed Iran and that “the Iranians don’t get a dime unless they behave and change their behavior.” However, the MOU text says only that Iran will maintain its nuclear status quo pending further talks. 

Kushner, on a background call with journalists, referenced “small gestures” Iran would receive for signing. The Wall Street Journal subsequently confirmed that oil revenue waivers are among them.

How the two Iran deals actually compare

The JCPOA — signed by Iran, the P5+1 powers, and the European Union in 2015 — was a detailed multilateral agreement specifying centrifuge limits, an enrichment cap of 3.67%, a 98% reduction in Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, modifications to the Arak heavy-water reactor, and a comprehensive IAEA inspection regime. Trump called it “the worst deal ever” and withdrew in May 2018, reimposing maximum pressure sanctions.

The Obama deal asked Iran to roll back its nuclear programme substantially. The Trump deal asks Iran to leave it where it is — and offers considerably more in return, including sanctions waivers, frozen assets, oil revenue, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. 

Whether the 60-day window produces a final agreement with meaningful nuclear constraints — which, to reiterate, was supposedly the reason the US went to war with Iran — remains the central open question.

The Netanyahu problem

Netanyahu has spent three decades lobbying American presidents to go to war with Iran over its nuclear programme. As early as 1992, as a member of the Israeli Knesset, he warned that Iran was three to five years from producing a nuclear weapon and called for an international front led by the US to stop it. 

He addressed Congress in 1996, warning that the deadline to prevent Iranian nuclear capability was “getting extremely close.” He drew a literal red line on a cartoon bomb at the United Nations in 2012. He flew to Washington over President Obama’s objections in 2015 to call the JCPOA a historic mistake that would hand Iran a nuclear bomb. 

Bush declined to act. Obama negotiated instead. Biden held the line without military force. Trump — in his second term — was the first American president to say yes. The result is a peace deal that, as written, leaves Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact and defers the question Netanyahu spent his career demanding be answered to 60 days of negotiations he was not invited to shape — and was not even told were concluding.

Thus, Israel may now be the US’s biggest obstacle to completing the deal. The MOU extends the ceasefire to Lebanon, but Netanyahu has refused to stop IDF operations against Hezbollah there. Vance reportedly held a tense call with Netanyahu, asking Israel to scale back its Lebanon presence, and Netanyahu outright refused. Trump told reporters Netanyahu “has to be more responsible” in Lebanon — “I’m not happy.” 

Iran has made its position clear, with Iranian officials telling Tasnim News Agency that no US-Iran talks would proceed until Israel stops its Lebanon attacks, threatening the Strait of Hormuz and “other fronts.” Iran’s army says Israel has violated the Lebanon ceasefire 84 times since the MOU was announced.

The US is essentially promising Tehran a Lebanon ceasefire it cannot deliver, because Netanyahu won’t honor it. Whether Trump will rein in Netanyahu — or even can — before the 60-day clock expires is the question the MOU leaves unanswered.

The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Geneva.



Information for this story was found via Bloomberg, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

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