Canada’s benchmark stock index has climbed nearly 37% over the past year, its strongest sustained run since the late 2000s, as a commodity surge and investor flight from US markets reshape global capital flows.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 33,964.33 on April 30, up 9,122.65 points — or 36.72% — from a year earlier. The gains follow a 28.2% annual return in 2025 — the TSX’s best year since 2009 — outpacing the S&P 500’s 17% gain.
Financials, materials, and energy together account for roughly 64% of the index’s weight, and all three sectors drove the run. Materials — about 17% of the index — surged more than 88% in 2025 as gold and silver prices climbed on safe-haven demand. Financials, the largest component at roughly 32%, benefited from the Bank of Canada’s full percentage point of rate cuts through 2025, which bolstered bank profits. Energy, at about 15%, gained approximately 10% on resilient global oil and gas demand.
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The S&P 500 faced sustained pressure from tariff volatility, the US-Israel-Iran conflict — which disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping and sent oil prices swinging — and eroding confidence in US trade policy. US stocks posted their worst start to a year since 1995, pushing institutional capital toward global alternatives.
The iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF, which tracks 22 developed and 24 emerging markets, is up approximately 9.5% in 2026.
“The TSX’s standout performance was less about one-off surprises and more about the index’s core exposures lining up with 2025’s macro environment,” Tiago Figueiredo, macro strategist at Desjardins Capital Markets, told Morningstar Canada.
“While no market leads forever, the TSX enters 2026 with meaningful tailwinds and a more balanced foundation than the US.”
The TSX crossed 30,000 points for the first time in September 2025 and breached 33,000 in January 2026. The index fell roughly 1% to close at 33,318 on April 29 after the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, and the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range.
BMO fell 2%, Royal Bank of Canada dropped 1.3%, and TD lost 0.8%. Canadian Natural Resources gained 1.9% on elevated oil prices; Agnico Eagle dropped 2.9% as gold prices slipped.
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