Three developments over four days have produced an unusual picture of the Trump administration’s economic relationship with Canada.
Washington says it has little urgency to resolve its trade fight with Ottawa because the US is still receiving the Canadian commodities it needs. At almost the same time, the US and China moved toward lower tariffs on $60 billion of bilateral trade, Prime Minister Mark Carney declined to completely rule out using Canadian energy exports as leverage, and a US drone company advised by Donald Trump Jr. invested US$5 million in a Canadian military supplier.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said President Donald Trump’s administration was comfortable with the status quo in negotiations with Canada.
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“We’re still getting what we need from them in terms of oil, gas, potash, all of these things,” Greer told CNBC, according to Reuters. He said Washington had “no urgency” to strike another agreement with Ottawa.
Two days later, Greer announced considerably more movement with Beijing. Under the new US-China Board of Trade framework, Washington and Beijing each identified about $30 billion of non-sensitive products for potentially more favorable tariff treatment. The American list includes Chinese household goods, toys, and other consumer products, while China’s list includes US agricultural goods, medical devices, and other exports.
Reuters reported Monday that the countries had agreed to cut tariffs covering $60 billion of two-way trade. Official US documents are somewhat more cautious, saying the products have been recommended for reduced tariff treatment through each country’s domestic processes.
Either way, the direction is clear. Washington and Beijing are identifying specific areas where tariffs can come down while negotiations with Canada remain frozen.
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Greer explicitly pointed to continued Canadian commodity supplies as evidence that the current arrangement remains workable for the US. Yet Carney, in an interview published the same day as Greer’s remarks, stopped short of promising those supplies could never become part of Canada’s response.
Carney told The New York Times that he was “very reluctant” to limit, tariff, or otherwise restrict Canadian energy exports to the US, republished by The Irish Times.
“If you’re a reliable partner and you supply energy or food to somebody it keeps running, it’s a very, very, very high threshold to change that,” Carney said. “Never say never, but it starts from a position of, we need to be a reliable supplier in all cases.”
Carney’s remarks were not a threat to halt exports. In fact, most of his answer argued against doing so. But they leave an important qualification hanging over Greer’s rationale. One side is saying the continued flow of Canadian energy helps make a stalled trade deal tolerable. The other is saying those flows should remain reliable, while refusing to call them untouchable under every circumstance.
Amidst this limbo, Canadian drone manufacturer Draganfly Inc. announced a US$10 million financing led equally by Unusual Machines and an unidentified US investment fund. Each is investing US$5 million at US$5.35 per Draganfly share.
Donald Trump Jr. has served on Unusual Machines’ advisory board since November 2024. The company’s SEC-filed announcement at the time also identified him as an investor in Unusual Machines.
The Canadian target is not just another commercial drone company. On September 11, Draganfly announced that the Canadian government had awarded it a five-year contract to supply low-cost tactical intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones to the Canadian Armed Forces. The initial commitment covers 100 systems, with options for as many as 4,900 additional units.
Three days earlier, Draganfly had also been accepted as a qualified supplier across all five capability streams of Canada’s Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace, giving the company a pathway to additional Canadian military and Coast Guard procurement opportunities.
Unusual Machines CEO Allan Evans said the Draganfly investment would support production growth and deepen the companies’ supplier relationships. Draganfly described the financing as part of its expansion across the US and international defence markets.
While the political relationship between Washington and Ottawa remains stalled, the private defence-industrial relationship is moving in the opposite direction. A US drone company with a Trump-family connection is putting capital into a Canadian company positioned to supply thousands of systems to Canada’s military.
Taken together, they expose the unusual economics underlying the current Canada-US dispute. The Trump administration can say it has no urgency to settle with Canada partly because Canadian oil, gas, and potash continue crossing the border. US investors can continue taking positions in strategically relevant Canadian companies. And Washington can simultaneously identify $60 billion of trade with China where tariff barriers could be lowered.
