For the first time since 2021, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have fallen to second place in Ontario provincial polling — trailing a Liberal Party that has not yet chosen a permanent leader.
A Liaison Strategies survey conducted April 25–26 put the Ontario Liberals at 38% and the PCs at 36% among decided and leaning voters, with the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 4%. The two-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, but the shift holds across multiple firms.
Abacus Data’s Ontario tracking from April 16–21 found the PCs at 37% and Liberals at 36% — a statistical tie representing a 5-point Liberal gain from earlier that month — with Ford’s personal approval dropping to its lowest since before spring 2024.
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Both polls follow weeks of fallout over the government’s purchase of a $28.9-million private jet, which Ford later announced would be sold. Liaison principal David Valentin said the controversy accelerated a decline already underway. “While the decay may have been slowed down by government advertising, the jet fiasco has pushed the PCs down even lower,” he said.
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The jet, though, functions less as a cause than a catalyst. Abacus found 83% of Ontarians rated provincial performance on housing affordability as poor, 81% on cost of living, and 79% on health care — the three issues voters ranked most pressing. Nearly half said they were financially treading water compared to a year earlier, while 36% said they were worse off.
The Ontario Liberal Party has operated without a permanent leader since January, when Bonnie Crombie resigned after receiving only 57% support in a mandatory party review. MPP John Fraser stepped in as interim leader — his third time in the role since 2018. The party’s leadership race concludes November 21, with federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith and MPPs Adil Shamji and Lee Fairclough among those weighing bids.
The Liberal rise reflects voter dissatisfaction with the governing party more than enthusiasm for an alternative. Ford still led Abacus’s preferred-premier numbers at 36%, with NDP leader Marit Stiles at 15%, Fraser at 14%, and 27% undecided.
338Canada’s provincial model as of April 29 projected approximately 57 PC seats against 36 Liberal, still giving Ford’s party significantly better odds of finishing first. The share of Ontarians open to voting Liberal climbed to 53%, however, while the pool willing to consider the PCs shrank to 42%.
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