Paradigm Initiates Coverage On Trulieve With $59 Price Target

Earlier this month, Paradigm Capital initiated coverage on Trulieve Cannabis Corp (CSE: TRUL) with a C$59 12-month price target and a Speculative buy rating. Corey Hammill, their senior analyst headlines the initiation note with “Flourishing in Florida & Looking Beyond.”

Trulieve currently has 14 analysts covering the company with a weighted 12-month price target of C$53.75. This is up from the average at the start of the month, which was C$43.60. Two analysts have strong buys, and the remaining 12 have buy ratings.

The first thing Hammill talks about is the recently appointed CFO, Alex D’Amico. He says that the CFO, “looks to be a keen operator focused on M&A, thus we believe the company is well positioned to pursue accretive growth to supplement its rapid organic scaling efforts in Florida.”

In Hamill’s first highlight, he writes, “Multi-State Operator that Dominates in Florida.” Currently, Trulieve has 68 open dispensaries, where it accounts for roughly 50% of all the states sales. Florida is now growing its patient base by 2% to 4% per month. Trulieve has done this by having the first-mover advantage.

Hamill says that this has allowed Trulieve to partner with some of the leading cannabis brands, such as Bhang, Binske, SLANG, Loves Oven, and Blue River, “Which gives it access to a unique and expansive portfolio of cannabis offerings that help bolster its portfolio of more than 500 SKUs.”

Hamill adds, “Edibles are a significant product category in mature cannabis markets, making up anywhere from 10% to 20% of total product sales. Recent industry estimates peg the edibles portion of the Florida cannabis market at $200–$250 million.”

Hamill then says Trulieve is “Poised for M&A Expansion.” He points to the newly appointed CFO, who brings experience managing M&A. He also points out the transition by Trulieve to becoming a domestic issuer due to a majority of shares being held by U.S investors. He writes, “Domestic issuer status eases M&A owing to the elimination of cross-border legal considerations.”

The last thing Hamill talks about is Trulieve’s strong revenue growth and margin. He writes Trulieve, “is well positioned to continue to generate positive free cash flow which sets up a strong 2021 for TRUL and its shareholders.”

Below you can see Paradigm Capital’s estimates for 2021 and 2022.

Information for this briefing was found via Sedar and Refinitiv. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.

Leave a Reply