Prediction marketplace Kalshi referred former Rep. George Santos to the Department of Justice over bets he placed on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s February 24 State of the Union address, a person familiar with the investigation told the Associated Press.
The day before the speech, Santos posted a video to X, saying, “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys.” Kalshi had his attendance priced at nearly 75% odds. But Santos had already placed bets against his own appearance, according to three people with direct knowledge of his trades who spoke to NPR. When Trump began speaking, Santos posted that he was stranded at an airport watching the address on TV — and NPR reported he netted tens of thousands of dollars from the position.
Kalshi froze Santos’s account and referred the matter to both the DOJ and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets. Both agencies opened investigations. As of this writing niether the DOJ nor the CFTC have publicly commented on the matter.
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Asked about the probe, Santos said, “well, that’s news to me.” He declined to confirm whether he held a Kalshi account. “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.”
On his podcast in March, he dismissed the controversy. “I guess people lost money,” Santos said. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Santos won his New York House seat in 2022 after fabricating nearly his entire professional biography. He pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2023 and received a seven-year prison sentence. Trump ordered his release after 84 days, citing Santos’s Republican voting record.
Flashback: Disgraced George Santos Accuses Representative of Insider Trading
Santos’s case joins a string of prediction market insider trading investigations. In April, the DOJ charged Army Special Forces Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about the US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to win roughly $410,000 on Polymarket. On April 30, the Senate voted unanimously to bar its members, officers, and staff from trading on the platforms.
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