Seven OPEC+ nations have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June, signaling a determination to stick to production plans despite the United Arab Emirates’ abrupt exit from the group on May 1. The decision, set to be finalized at an online policy meeting on Sunday, comes as geopolitical tensions severely constrain the group’s ability to deliver on such targets.
The output hike mirrors last month’s increase of 206,000 bpd, adjusted for the UAE’s departure, and involves key members Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. Yet, the symbolic nature of the move is stark against the backdrop of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which erupted on February 28 and has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical shipping lane’s blockade has throttled exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, rendering production hikes largely theoretical for now.
Compounding the disruption, Iran—though not part of Sunday’s meeting—faces a U.S. blockade imposed in April that has slashed its oil exports. Before the conflict, only the seven nations now meeting, alongside the UAE, had the capacity to meaningfully boost output within the 21-member OPEC+ alliance.
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OPEC+ output has already taken a steep hit, with crude production across all members averaging 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February. Saudi Arabia and Iraq bore the brunt of these cuts due to export constraints, while Russia slashed production after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged key infrastructure. The ongoing war and regional instability continue to overshadow internal policy decisions.
READ: UAE’s OPEC Exit Could Mean More To Follow… And Remove The Cap
Beyond the Gulf, the UAE’s exit marks a rare fracture in OPEC+ cohesion, though the remaining members appear intent on projecting stability. The group’s focus on incremental output adjustments suggests a longer-term strategy to maintain market influence, even as immediate supply routes remain choked.
As the Sunday meeting approaches, the agreed 188,000 bpd increase for June stands as a marker of intent rather than a guarantee of delivery, with actual production capacity still hostage to geopolitical developments. The combined impact of the Hormuz closure and regional export cuts has left OPEC+ with a March output deficit that may take months to recover, regardless of policy targets.
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