Seven core OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to keep oil production targets unchanged for November as the Iran war holds Gulf output well below quotas and Brent crude above $100 a barrel.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided in an online meeting and will meet again on November 1. OPEC+ also held targets in October, making November a second straight month without an increase.
The seven members pumped about 25 million barrels a day in August, roughly 5 million below pre-war February levels, because export disruptions keep Gulf producers under their quotas.
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Brent crude settled at $102.25 a barrel Friday and traded near $102 in Asia on Monday, up from about $73 before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Iran has set seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and indirect talks with the US have stalled.
Middle East crude exports ran above pre-war levels on four of seven days in the last week of September, according to shipping data, even as vessels near Hormuz came under attack. Saudi Aramco also surprised the market by cutting its November Asian crude prices to their lowest in six years.
The Group of Seven agreed Friday to draw up to 100 million barrels from emergency reserves over four months, led by a frontloaded substantial diesel release in the first 20 days. US diesel prices have hit records, and the G7 also promised to avoid energy export curbs. The release is “taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price,” KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer said.
OPEC+ has delayed its review of members’ production capacity, which sets baselines for 2027 quotas, because of uncertainty in the Middle East.
