President Donald Trump’s possible revival of Project Freedom is putting the Strait of Hormuz back into focus, but the next test may be commercial rather than military: whether shipping markets are willing to treat the route as usable again.
Because while a US escort can move a vessel, it cannot automatically restore normal shipping economics, remove war-risk premiums, lower crew risk, or convince traders that delivery schedules are reliable again.
Project Freedom was framed as a way to reopen commercial movement through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran-linked threats and attacks disrupted shipping. Reuters reported that the US operation involved Navy destroyers, aircraft, undersea assets, and about 15,000 troops, with US forces destroying Iranian small boats and intercepting missiles and drones during the initial push.
But the early numbers show the difference between getting a ship through and restoring routine trade. A Channel NewsAsia piece noted that roughly 130 vessels usually pass through the strait each day, while the US effort initially moved only a small number of commercial ships.
The market does not need a full closure to reprice risk. If tankers wait outside the strait, reroute cargo, demand higher compensation, or require added security guarantees, the economic effect begins before the waterway is officially shut.
That is why the insurance layer matters. Breaking Defense cited analysts saying it could take time before commercial shipping companies feel safe enough to move through Hormuz, with one former Pentagon official saying insurers may be even more important than ship operators in determining whether traffic resumes.
For operators, the decision is not made on a single successful escort. It is made on repeatability: whether the next voyage can be insured, staffed, scheduled, and completed without turning into a balance-sheet event.
Reuters reported that Trump paused Project Freedom on May 5 for a “short period” to see whether an agreement with Iran could be finalized and signed, while the US blockade remained in force.
The pause also exposed the coalition problem. According to a Reuters report, South Korea stopped reviewing possible participation in the operation after Washington suspended it.
Now, Trump’s reported rejection of Iran’s latest response to a US proposal now puts the operation back in focus. If talks weaken and Project Freedom resumes, the next phase would not simply test whether Washington can force open a lane. It would test whether markets view that lane as durable enough to price normally.
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