International student enrollment in Canada has plunged far below government targets, with new arrivals projected to drop 70% in 2025, but the country’s main university association is declining to release specific figures that would reveal the extent of the crisis.
Universities Canada warned Monday that student numbers have fallen “well beyond the government’s intended target,” but the organization provided no enrollment data in its public statements.
Industry analysis shows only 163,000 new international students are expected to arrive in Canada this year, down from government projections of 437,000 study permits. The figure represents the lowest new student intake since 2016, excluding pandemic years.
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Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, told CTV News that “we’re keeping out way more of the people we wanted to keep, and we’re going way past the targets in the cap that their government originally set,” but did not disclose specific numbers.
The drop in enrollment follows Canada’s two-year cap on international students, implemented in January 2024 to address housing shortages and program quality concerns. The policy initially targeted a 35% reduction in 2024 and another 10% cut in 2025.
New study permit applications fell 30% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to ApplyBoard, an education technology company that tracks enrollment data.
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University bachelor’s programs saw applications drop 39%, while graduate programs declined 32%. Over 60% of current study permits are going to students already in Canada, renewing their status, rather than new arrivals.
The crisis has triggered widespread job losses in Canadian higher education, with Ontario hit particularly hard. Nineteen of Ontario’s 24 colleges reported staff reductions exceeding 8,000 employees as of June, according to provincial data.
Total job losses in Canadian universities and colleges now approach 12,000, with about 60% occurring at Ontario public colleges.
“Canada’s reputation has taken such a hit that a lot of the best and brightest who we need to come here are looking at other options,” Miller said. He called for a government recovery plan but provided no enrollment figures.
The policy aimed to reduce temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by 2026, but recent analysis suggests that target won’t be met until 2029 or later. Canada hosted over 1 million international students at its peak in 2023, making it one of the world’s top study destinations before implementing the restrictions.
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