The US formally began the USMCA review process, with the Trade Representative opening 45 days of public consultations and scheduling hearings for November. The move is the first official step toward reassessing the 2020 pact that replaced NAFTA and underpins trillions of dollars in North American trade.
According to the preliminary federal register notice, USTR is seeking public “recommendations for specific actions that USTR should propose ahead of the Joint Review to promote balanced trade, new market access, and alignment on economic security with Mexico and Canada.” The consultation phase is a required precursor to the formal joint review date set for July 1, 2026.
The review unfolds against a protectionist and murkey trade backdrop. Earlier this year, the White House imposed a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, raising it to 35% on Canada in August, while carving out products that meet USMCA rules of origin. That exemption has allowed about 85% of Canadian exports to continue entering the US tariff-free, which Ottawa has identified as a top priority to preserve in negotiations.
Although President Donald Trump once labeled USMCA the “fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement,” the administration has repeatedly breached the agreement’s letter and spirit by levying steep tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and automobiles and by dismissing the need for Canadian-made cars.
Analysts expect Washington to use the review to push for concessions, including greater access to Canada’s supply-managed dairy and poultry sectors and higher US content requirements in North American autos. As in the 2017–2018 NAFTA talks, the administration may also threaten to withdraw to extract terms.
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The US move follows Mexico’s own announcement that it has also started a public consultation process to gather information on reviewing the regional deal.
Next procedural steps hinge on whether the administration seeks trade promotion authority from Congress to reopen USMCA’s text. With TPA, Washington could pursue textual changes but without it, alterations would likely come through side letters or other informal arrangements with Ottawa and Mexico City.
Three outcomes are on the table once consultations and negotiations run their course: the parties can extend USMCA for another 16 years. They can move to annual reviews, which would see the agreement expire in 2036 absent renewal or any party can withdraw with six months’ notice.
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