A federal seat the Conservatives won less than 16 months ago is suddenly at risk of flipping as Quebec voters head to the polls Monday against a national backdrop increasingly dominated by President Donald Trump.
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is the most politically consequential of three federal byelections scheduled for August 31. Conservative Richard Martel won the riding in April 2025 with 34.1% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 31.2% and Liberals at 31.1%. He vacated the seat in July after being appointed to the Senate.
But now, Conservatives fall as a third-placer in a Poliwave survey conducted August 16–19 which puts their candidate, Régis Gaudreault, at 15.4%. Liberal Daniel Gobeil leads at 39.9% followed by Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé at 35.1%.
Gaudreault’s result would represent an 18.7-point decline from the Conservative share in the 2025 election.
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The poll carries substantial uncertainty as 41.9% initially identified themselves as undecided. More importantly, fieldwork ended before the latest rupture in US-Canada trade relations. That timing matters because newer national polling indicates the political agenda shifted sharply after the survey was conducted.
Did Trump put Liberals ahead?
Abacus Data reported Sunday that the Liberals now lead nationally with 45% support among committed voters, compared with 35% for the Conservatives and 9% for the NDP. The Liberal advantage widened from seven to 10 points in two weeks, entirely because Liberal support increased three points while Conservative support remained unchanged.
The biggest movement was not on affordability or the economy. Trump and his administration are now identified by 45% of Canadians as one of the country’s three most important issues, up seven points from August 12. Trump ranks second nationally behind the cost of living at 62%.
The irony: Quebec is no exception. There, 63% identify Trump as a top-three issue, making the US president a larger concern than the cost of living at 53%, the economy at 39%, housing at 26%, or healthcare at 25%. Liberal support in Quebec simultaneously increased from 37% two weeks ago to 45%, while the Bloc stands at 34% and the Conservatives at 16%.
The issue also strongly favours Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals. Among Canadians who identify Trump as a top concern, 60% say they would vote Liberal against 21% Conservative.
Asked which party is best equipped to handle Trump and his administration, 62% choose the Liberals and 18% choose the Conservatives.
Abacus CEO David Coletto cautioned that the survey cannot establish that Trump caused the Liberal increase. The numbers nevertheless show that the issue experiencing the largest increase in salience is one on which the Liberals hold one of their widest advantages.
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord now provides a near-term test of whether that national environment is showing up at the ballot box.
Vote-Scope’s byelection-specific model projects Gobeil at 41.1%, Dubé at 37.2%, and Gaudreault at 14.5%, giving the Liberals a 79% probability of winning.
Prediction traders are even more bearish on the Conservatives. Polymarket prices currently imply roughly 73% for Gobeil and 28% for Dubé, while Gaudreault trades below 1%. More than $81,000 has been wagered across the market.
